Financial Exposure Engine

Forge computes dual exposure — separating contractual penalties from operational burn — and applies concurrency resolution to surface the exposure that is truly chargeable.

Dual Exposure Model

Every delay signal produces two distinct financial outputs. This mirrors how construction executives actually think about risk — internal cost vs. external obligation.

🔥 Operational Burn

The internal cost of delay: extended general conditions, superintendent salaries, equipment rental, site overhead. Calculated as delayDays × dailyBurnRate. This is known, predictable pain that every GC budgets for.

⚖️ Contractual Penalties

The external, punitive obligation: liquidated damages, milestone penalties, and subcontractor back-charges. With construction margins at 2–5%, a €15,000/day LD can obliterate profit in weeks. This is the number executives fear.

Constraint Resolver

Contract rules are extracted from documents and stored as typed ProjectConstraint entities. The resolver applies them using hierarchical precedence — matching real-world contract logic.

Level 1

Activity-Level

Direct constraint on a specific work item. Highest precedence — takes priority over all broader rules.

Level 2

Milestone-Level

Constraint scoped to a delivery milestone (e.g., Substantial Completion). Applies to all activities feeding that milestone.

Level 3

Environment-Level

Project-wide default (global LD rate, standard burn rate). Applies only if no more specific constraint exists.

Why this matters: Without hierarchical resolution, the system would apply a global LD rate to a non-critical interior finishing task — producing wildly inflated exposure that no executive would trust.

Concurrency Resolution

When multiple parties cause overlapping delays, penalties cannot simply be summed. The ConcurrencyResolverService sweeps all delay intervals and computes what each party is truly liable for.

How It Works

Each accepted signal is projected as a DelayInterval anchored to the activity start date.
Intervals are sorted chronologically and swept using a timeline algorithm.
Overlapping windows between Contractor and Owner delays are detected.
Attribution is net-computed: contractorDays, ownerDays, concurrentDays.
Penalties apply only to the contractorDays — the truly chargeable window.

Example Output

Gross Contractor Delay: 5 days

Owner Concurrent Overlap: −2 days

Net Chargeable Days: 3 days

Gross Exposure: €62,500

Concurrency Neutralized: −€25,000

Net Exposure: €37,500

Confirmed vs. Potential Exposure

Forge distinguishes between risk that has already materialized and risk that is still emerging. This prevents conflating today's delays with tomorrow's predictions.

✓ Confirmed Exposure

Exposure calculated from actual schedule slippage relative to the baseline. This is proven delay that has already occurred in the field.

⚡ Potential Exposure

Exposure calculated from emerging signals(unstructured site logs, RFIs) that have not yet hit the schedule. This is the "Pre-Crime" indicator of future slippage.

Risk Drift & Emerging Pressure

By propagating emerging signals upstream, Forge calculates the latent pressure on project milestones before they actually slip.

The Drift Formula

Risk Drift (Days) = Σ(Signal Pressure) / 20

Signal Pressure is a composite of Severity Rank, Temporal Proximity, and Float Buffer. A milestone can have 0 days of confirmed delay but 12 days of "Risk Drift," meaning it is statistically inevitable that it will slip unless mitigated.

Executive Dashboard

The exposure summary card on the executive dashboard surfaces all three layers of the financial story — designed to build trust with the numbers shown.

Confirmed Exposure

€45,000

Materialized delay relative to baseline

Potential Exposure

€140,000

Risk from emerging qualitative signals

Total Anchored Exposure

€185,000

Confirmed + Potential Max